NFL odds Week 1: Best bets, why you should back Tom Brady and the Bucs

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I always say that time flies when you’re having football, and it’s true. Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and it’s been a long time coming. I hope all you bettors and fans are looking forward to another great season of football gambling fun. 

As everyone remembers, from a gambling perspective, the playoffs were exciting (or devastating), with so many of the games coming down to the final 30 seconds of the game clock. When you add in the surprise Super Bowl appearance from the Bengals and the Disney-movie narrative of Matthew Stafford going from a playoff loser to the ultimate winner, last season was a great return to form for the fans and the league itself. 

Here’s to hoping that trend continues this year. 

Anyway, lets focus on the reason you are here. I’ve got three strong plays that stick out for the opening week. So with the season’s kickoff mere hours away, let’s get right into it with my best bets (odds via FOX Bet).

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

San Francisco 49ers

SF

Chicago Bears

CHI

Consider this: The Niners trust Trey Lance so much that they decided to keep a quarterback that’s guided them to the Super Bowl and NFC Championship game over the last three seasons on the roster.  

That tells me he’s not ready for primetime. The Niners will rely on their run game to control the tempo and pace of this contest. 

Also, per reports, star tight end George Kittle is banged up for San Francisco. Groin injuries are tough to quickly battle back from, so something else to keep an eye on.

On the flip side is Justin Fields, who just today said that he hopes “none of y’all [the media] expect him to win every rep against Nick Bosa.” ‘He’ in that quote is rookie left tackle Braxton Jones. Yikes.  

Fields said the quiet part out loud. It will be a rough day for the poor Bears’ offensive line against the 49ers’ outstanding pass rush. Even if they give Fields time, the rest of the Niners’ defense will blanket the Bears’ receiving options.  

Trey Lance vs. Justin Fields is an automatic under wager for me in this game. 

PICK: Under 41 total points scored between both teams at FOX Bet

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tom Brady are favorites to win MVP | UNDISPUTED

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is prepping for a showdown with the Los Angeles Rams in tonight’s season opener.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

This game will be decided by the quarterback (and offense) that overcomes its line protection issues. Tom Brady will be without his starting center and left guard while the Cowboys Dak Prescott is without his starting left guard and left tackle.  

Historically, Dak Prescott has struggled without Tyron Smith — the only blind side protector he’s had in his career — and against this pass rush, I would not want to be without Smith. In his absence, the Cowboys have moved rookie and first-round pick, Tyler Smith, to left tackle and inserted a suboptimal left guard. This is not ideal for Dak Prescott, and I think the Cowboys’ offense will struggle. 

It’s totally fair to question Tom Brady behind an injury-plagued offensive line. We have seen the past struggles, but I’m not worried about it in Week 1. The Bucs have had time to prepare for a Cowboys defense that everyone expects regression from. There is no way they can force turnovers at the same rate they did last season, and, not to mention, the Bucs have elite skill position weapons.   

I’ll take the Bucs to cover in game one.  

PICK: Buccaneers (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points 

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

New Orleans Saints

NO

Atlanta Falcons

ATL

If you’re new to my weekly picks column, welcome. If you’re a returning user, you already know what I’m going to say.  

Never wager on the Atlanta Falcons.  

Ever.  

Not for them and not against them. You will never win. Year after year, they are the most frustrating team to bet on. 

Having said that, I’m not laying 5.5 with the Saints on the road. That is crazy. They just lost a Hall of Fame coach and quarterback, a left tackle and a few players off an underrated 2021 defense.  

Their new coach was unsuccessful in his first NFL coaching stint, and turnover-prone Jameis Winston guides them. It’s too early in the season to lay money on a team that I have so many questions about. 

So my play for this game is looking to fade Falcons’ quarterback Marcus Mariota. His passing yards prop is set to 218.5, which appears like a low number, but based on the last three years of Mariota starts, the number might be high.  

In Mariota’s last three starting seasons in Tennessee, 2017-2019, he did not average over 218.5 passing yards. In his final two seasons (2018-19), he didn’t even come close to averaging 200 passing yards. The Saints return the bulk of their tough defense from 2021, and the Falcons have one legitimate passing threat at the receiver position. Mariota is going to struggle. Fade him.

PICK: Mariota under 218.5 passing yards

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Indianapolis Colts

IND

Houston Texans

HOU

This is my favorite wager of the weekend.

In fact, I wagered on the Texans +8 when this line was posted right after the NFL Draft.

Since 2014, divisional underdogs have covered 76% of their games in Week 1. The Texans, while not primed for a good season, do have the pieces to keep games close. They have a left tackle. They have some skill position players to go around second-year quarterback Davis Mills.

But more than anything in this game is the Colts’ lack of success in the first week under Frank Reich. They are 0-4 without covering a single contest.

And these games aren’t against opponents you’d expect them to lose to. The one win came against the Jaguars in 2021. Seattle beat them to open 2020. The Bengals defeated them opening weekend in 2018.
The Colts start slow.

Additionally, Indianapolis is starting its fifth quarterback in five seasons. This could be a reason the team has struggled in Week 1.

I’ll take the Texans.

PICK: Texans (+8 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 8 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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